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China Pulls a "Sold" 2%
The good news is that Chinese growth picked up in Q4, thanks to the combination of strong global export demand, higher government spending and property demand stabilization.
The bad news is that estimated growth is still only 2% y/y, way below the official GDP pace - with only very few economic indicators showing 5% growth or above.
As before, there's no sign of major stimulus in the two key flow metrics we follow, i.e., net new credit activity and net new government borrowing.
And there are pronounced two-way risks going into 2025. We could see further policy actions leading to a stronger domestic recovery this year, but for now the one main sector holding up growth is still exports - and it's not clear how long the global trade upturn will last.
China Pulls a "Solid" 2% (PDF)
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