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China: A Little Joy in October
Our China Activity Index rebounded last month - albeit only to an implied growth rate of just over 1% y/y, still far below the official headline GDP growth rate. Most of the pickup came from better sentiment on the expenditure front, with an increase in retail sales, a surge in budgetary spending and a bounce in property demand. Physical activity indicators are still very muted.
As before, there's not much sign of "traditional" macro stimulus yet, as credit growth is still fading at the margin and new fiscal issuance is static. And without support on this front it's not clear how far the recent sentiment boost can go.
Meanwhile, the government continues to lock down risks. More than stimulus, official policy has been obsessively focused on "locking down" the economy; the government is essentially underwriting all financial and corporate default risks, tightening capital controls and heavily supporting balance sheets via the banking system.
China: A Little Joy in October (PDF)
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