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No Reason to Leave Mongolia
The macroeconomic environment in Mongolia has deteriorated slightly compared to a year ago on the back of softer commodity prices, affecting the external accounts and the budget.
However, the tugrik is fairly stable and sovereign dollar spreads remains narrow – and with ongoing investment in export capacity and growing underlying export volume exports we continue to expect further macro gains ahead.
The source of downside risk, of course, is China, as the current property market shakeout raises the potential for macro volatility in Mongolia's main (indeed, virtually sole) export market. But on balance we believe that property woes will have only limited impact on mainland demand for Mongolian coal and copper, as we have seen in the past couple of years.
As a result, we remain invested in Mongolian equities and dollar credit on the back of medium-term structural growth prospects.
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