Services trade is not a main driver of growth across broad EM. Emerging services exports are small, only one-sixth the size of merchandise goods exports by value - and not increasing significantly over time as a share of total trade.

But still huge in individual cases. There are nonetheless a number of clear services-driven "winners" in EM. The absolute gold standard is here is UAE, driven by an explosion of "everything" from tourism and transport to finance and logistics. Next we would highlight Singapore and its booming financial services economy, and a number of peripheral European economies from the Baltics and former Yugoslav states where services have accompanied the boom in manufacturing exports.

Fade the "new economy" hype? At the same time, (i) we have yet to see a dramatic, sustained boom from new IT services and business outsourcing sectors, and (ii) emphatically do not see services exports as a potential "stand-alone" development path for larger countries such as India or the Philippines, not to mention other BRICs.