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Romania Just Keeps Issuing
The current narrative is dominated by politics, as governance risk and uncertainty has caused a sell-off in Romanian assets this year.
However, for us the biggest issue remains wide twin deficits and heavy external issuance. Romania is still the most imbalanced "twin deficit" economy we follow - and while these deficits have been financed in part by FDI, EU transfers and portfolio inflows, they also reflect a tremendous surge in external market borrowing. Indeed, Romania is now tied for the title of largest EM sovereign Eurobond issuer.
As a result, it's hard to get excited about asset markets. Even if political sentiment calms down, we worry that medium-term external stability questions will increasingly hang over the investment outlook.
Romania Just Keeps Issuing (PDF)
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