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Kenya, the IMF and Wishful Thinking

Kenya has a newly-minted IMF program - but as in Pakistan, Argentina and many other recent cases, a program that is based on wildly unrealistic export growth assumptions and thus almost certain to fail. Unfortunately, Kenya is still nowhere near external sustainability today, and there's still a good bit of adjustment pain ahead.

Kenya, the IMF and Wishful Thinking

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EM Monthly Chartbook (March 2021)

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