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Another Zero for China

Official real GDP growth for Q2 was 4.7%, but our own Activity Index has been close to zero for the past three months ... implying outright nominal contraction.

Almost everything is weak. Consumer spending, corporate profits, fixed asset investment and government activity are all weak, and of course the property and construction sector remains a big negative drag.

As before, there's no sign of meaningful further macro stimulus in the data. Credit growth is fading, new fiscal issuance is weak - and "quasi-fiscal" deficits are already running very high.

Another Zero for China (Webcast)

Another Zero for China (PDF)

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