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EM Fiscal Sustainability for 2025

With slowing nominal growth and somewhat elevated interest rates, most EM economies are likely to see a rise in public debt ratios in 2025 after the sharp decline in 2022-23.

The biggest "risk" countries in our major group are China and Brazil, both of which have high starting public debt levels and large sustainability gaps going into 2025. By contrast, the overwhelming high-debt "winners" next year should be Argentina and Egypt, in light of marked fiscal adjustment, high nominal growth and repressed interest rates.

Assessing debt sustainability in the emerging frontier is a bit more complicated, given the much higher share of external liabilities and foreign funding dependence, but we also provide some tools to gauge the state of play here.

EM Fiscal Sustainability for 2025

Monthly Chartbook

Our monthly guide to emerging markets by charts and data.

EM Monthly Chartbook (November 2024)

China Chartbook

Our monthly guide to China by charts and data.

China Monthly Chartbook (November 2024)

Frontier Chartbook

Our quarterly guide to frontier markets by charts and data.

EM Frontier Chartbook (2024 Q4 Edition)

Annual Chartbook

Our annual guide to emerging markets by charts and data.

EM Annual Chartbook (2024 Edition)

Corporate Chartbook

Our semi-annual guide to EM listed corporate trends by charts and data.

EM Corporate Charbook (2022 Edition)