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Milei at 100 Days

Milei gets high marks for his (unfortunately mostly failed) attempt to fundamentally slash expenditures and reform the fiscal/quasi-fiscal state ... but a zero for his lack of attention to financial liberalization and stabilization.

In fact, on the financial front he's been no better at all than his predecessors. The peso was devalued but then re-pegged. Interest rates have been cut rather than increased, despite skyrocketing inflation. And the pace of central bank money creation accelerated outright for most of his initial tenure.

Bottom line: as before we can't see a "Milei stabilization trade" here. Right now you're still paid to short ARS rather than go long in our view. And the continued rally in dollar sovereign debt doesn't make much sense.

Milei at 100 Days: "A" for Structural Effort, "D" for Financial Stabilization (PDF)

Milei at 100 Days: "A" for Structural Effort, "D" for Financial Stabilization (Webcast)

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