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Not Even a Hint of Stimulus

So far there's no sign of macro stimulus in China, as traditional credit and fiscal tools are not being used at all. The authorities are backstopping financial risks and have taken some micro-level measures, but are not attempting to move the broad economy per se.

One reason, of course, is that the true "crunch time" is still ahead. Headline GDP growth numbers look ok; growth actually firmed up in Q2, and there's lots of talk about better momentum in Q3 as well. This soon will change, however, as y/y growth figures are still on track to collapse at end-year in our view.

Also, and more fundamentally, no one really knows what leadership wants. This is in part because the destruction of "normal" decision-making channels has made it impossible to read policy signals ... and in part because Xi Jinping has never had an economic agenda per se
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Not Even a Hint of Stimulus (Webcast)

Not Even a Hint of Stimulus (PDF)

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