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Why Doesn't RON Look More Like HUF? (Webcast)

On paper Romania looks worse than Hungary, in terms of its wide (and growing) external current account deficit, unabated demand surge at home and much lower interest rates. But the RON has outperformed HUF significantly. Even so, fast year the leu was completely spared the dramatic shakeout in the forint. What's going on?

Part of the answer lies in the structure of external funding. Romania is relatively more dependent on FDI and EU transfers and less on market portfolio flows than Hungary is. Nonetheless, we worry that currency risks are growing. And as a result we remain cautious on Romanian assets.

Why Doesn't RON Look More Like HUF? (Webcast)

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