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Egypt All Over the Map

The pound is now massively supported in the near term. With the flood of UAE disbursements, high interest rates and portfolio inflows, it's no surprise that the EGP rate has held and black market premia have disappeared.

But there is also huge volatility in the BOP and fiscal data. Current deficits exploded wider at end-2023, presumably due to temporary factors but we want to watch the figures. Also, high domestic interest rates have led to massive widening of the overall fiscal deficit, with ongoing local funding pressures.

We're in local markets on a tactical basis but are cautious on the structural trade. Once current support has been digested, there are still a lot of open questions to be answered in the medium term.

And we continue to see dollar debt as "well-priced". Unless there's a continued regional "buyout" of Egypt's external liabilities, we question the prospects for sovereign dollar upside from here.

Egypt All Over the Map (Webcast)

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