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No Great Joy for India in Q2

The Indian economy continues to slow at the margin. Our growth proxy index is now down to around 4% y/y, mirrored by a deceleration in credit activity and earnings. This is far from recession - but also now well below the official 7%-plus real GDP growth figure for Q1.

As before there are no macro balance sheet troubles. External deficits are moderate, held in by low oil prices; inflation continues to fall; the fiscal balance is "just enough" to avoid serious trouble, and the RBI has seen room to cut rates at the margin.

But this is not an equity boom story. Indian stocks are still expensively priced even after last year's retrenchment, and with earnings no longer rising we're not inclined to re-enter the market.

No Great Joy for India in Q2 (Webcast)

No Great Joy for India in Q2 (PDF)

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