Log in
New!
No Great Joy for India in Q2
The Indian economy continues to slow at the margin. Our growth proxy index is now down to around 4% y/y, mirrored by a deceleration in credit activity and earnings. This is far from recession - but also now well below the official 7%-plus real GDP growth figure for Q1.
As before there are no macro balance sheet troubles. External deficits are moderate, held in by low oil prices; inflation continues to fall; the fiscal balance is "just enough" to avoid serious trouble, and the RBI has seen room to cut rates at the margin.
But this is not an equity boom story. Indian stocks are still expensively priced even after last year's retrenchment, and with earnings no longer rising we're not inclined to re-enter the market.
No Great Joy for India in Q2 (PDF)
Corporate Chartbook
Our semi-annual guide to EM listed corporate trends by charts and data.
EM Corporate Charbook (2022 Edition)How To Think About Emerging Markets (2024 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong with EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 4)
Four Big Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 6)
Life After China (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 7)
Macro and EM Equities (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 8)
Macro and EM Debt (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 9)
Macro and EM Currencies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 10)
How To Think About China (2025 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Property Boom and Property Bust (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 4)Debt, Banks and the Budget (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 5)
The Future of the Renminbi and the Closing of China (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 6)
The Aging Crisis (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 7)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 8)