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No, Kenya is Not a Buy
Kenyan sovereign dollar yields have blown back out in recent months, and the shilling has started to give way. Is this just short-term market jitters, or the beginning of the "end" for the Kenyan debt and FX trade.We could potentially see Kenyan spreads reining back in and the currency stabilizing in the near term ahead if markets calm down; after all, Kenya has a different liquidity profile than, say, the recent stress cases of Ghana and Sri Lanka.
However, as always we need to stress that Kenya is also fundamentally insolvent, with no hope of repaying its debts over the medium term and thus no escape from what we believe will be inevitable default and restructuring. I.e., no, Kenya is not a "buy".
No, Kenya is Not a Buy
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