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Venezuela - Now What?

Venezuelan debt has rallied on the change in US investment policy, with many bond prices doubling over the past month. Is this the beginning of an even bigger repricing ahead if Venezuela continues the "normalization" path and makes it to a formal debt restructuring?

We do see room for further upside if the country manages to both (i) credibly stabilize its finances and (ii) deliver on political reform at home, kick-starting the path of export recovery.

However, that upside is limited ... and there's the downside trade as well. Even in the best case Venezuela will need far bigger haircuts than any other country in recent memory. And of course there's a strong likelihood of backtracking on the US relations front.

Bottom line, there are good reasons to take at least some profits if you were lucky enough to buy into the rally


Venezuela - Now What? (Webcast)

Venezuela - Now What? (PDF)

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