Turkey's "strange equilibrium" continues, with every nominal indicator in the system (money, credit, wages, inflation, interest rates, the lira exchange rate, etc.) still sitting in the 30% to 40% y/y range and essentially moving sideways.

And still no major threats. And again, there's not much in the economy that would obviously threaten this balancing act at the moment: real demand, the external position, the fiscal balance are all in a "limbo" range of neither hot not cold.

Nor are there clear market calls, in our view. TRY carry was very profitable for much of last year while Turkish equities lost money - but both trades are highly volatile, with no guarantees either way going into 2026.

What could shake this balance? The two key tail risks that could shock the system are (i) spiking oil prices and (ii) bank external funding pressures. Watch this space.