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More Fence-Sitting On the Philippines
Since we last wrote, the main news in the Philippines is that the domestic cycle has started to turn, with durable demand, construction, consumer spending and earnings all flattening out at the margin. This also means that external imbalances are no longer worsening - but without a viable source of dollar earnings growth it still leaves the country with a meaningful structural deficit.
As before we remain "meh" with regard to Philippine assets. Equities are no longer expensive, but a weaker earnings outlook doesn't point to strong gains ahead. And while the BSP's relatively cautious rates policy has kept the peso stable, this is also the only twin deficit economy in the region, and we don't want to be caught out if risk appetite turns.
More Fence-Sitting On the Philippines (PDF)
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