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Is Indonesia Falling Apart?
The rupiah has been under serious pressure this year and the stock market has simply tanked, both by far the worst performers in East/Southeast Asia. What's wrong with Indonesia?
In fact, the macro picture is simply not that bad. Markets have been on the back foot due to concerns over equity derating and central bank independence and inflation - but the macro situation is much more benign, with solid but not overheated growth at home, good balance sheets and rather moderate external deficits. As a result we see Indonesia as oversold from a fundamental perspective.
I.e., we don't have a problem with investors who want to enter the market today to take advantage of depressed valuations, although we also recognize the ongoing risks posed by the pending MSCI equity index review.
Is Indonesia Falling Apart? (PDF)
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