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EM Fiscal Sustainability for 2025
With slowing nominal growth and somewhat elevated interest rates, most EM economies are likely to see a rise in public debt ratios in 2025 after the sharp decline in 2022-23.
The biggest "risk" countries in our major group are China and Brazil, both of which have high starting public debt levels and large sustainability gaps going into 2025. By contrast, the overwhelming high-debt "winners" next year should be Argentina and Egypt, in light of marked fiscal adjustment, high nominal growth and repressed interest rates.
Assessing debt sustainability in the emerging frontier is a bit more complicated, given the much higher share of external liabilities and foreign funding dependence, but we also provide some tools to gauge the state of play here.
Corporate Chartbook
Our semi-annual guide to EM listed corporate trends by charts and data.
EM Corporate Charbook (2022 Edition)How To Think About Emerging Markets (2024 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong with EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 4)
Four Big Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 6)
Life After China (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 7)
Macro and EM Equities (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 8)
Macro and EM Debt (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 9)
Macro and EM Currencies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 10)
How To Think About China (2023 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 2)
Explaining the Miracle (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 3)
The Most Important Sector in the Universe (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 4)
Debt Boom and Debt Bust (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 5)
Is There a New Growth Model? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 6)
The Future of the Renminbi (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 7)
The Aging of China (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 8)
Food and the Next Decade (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 9)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 10)