Log in
New!
Indonesia Wins the Prize for Most Useless GDP Data
We often complain about the lack of credibility in Chinese and/or Indian national accounts statistics - but among the major countries we cover it's actually Indonesia that wins the prize for most unbelievable GDP figures.
Why? Because headline real growth almost never varies from 5% y/y ... full stop, regardless of what's happening in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, proxy estimates show a very different picture with (i) a far more volatile growth pattern, careening up and down on a regular basis, and (ii) a more dramatic trend slowdown over the past decade, with almost no growth in the economy today. And these alternative estimates correlate much better with the behavior of underlying profits and earnings.
The bottom line is that whether you are an equity, FX or fixed income investor, you should not be investing in Indonesia based on official GDP data. You need to pay much more attention to what's happening on the ground.
Indonesia Wins the Prize for Most Useless GDP Data (PDF)
Corporate Chartbook
Our semi-annual guide to EM listed corporate trends by charts and data.
EM Corporate Charbook (2022 Edition)How To Think About Emerging Markets (2024 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong with EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 4)
Four Big Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2024 Edition, Part 6)
How To Think About China (2023 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 2)
Explaining the Miracle (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 3)
The Most Important Sector in the Universe (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 4)
Debt Boom and Debt Bust (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 5)
Is There a New Growth Model? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 6)
The Future of the Renminbi (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 7)
The Aging of China (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 8)
Food and the Next Decade (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 9)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 10)